Whatnot and the economics of repacks 📦

PLUS: Rare 1/1 Jordan Logoman hits the auction block 💎

Author

Azum Beg
April 24, 2024

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Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

  • Whatnot and the economics of repacks 📦

  • Rare 1/1 Jordan Logoman hits the auction block 💎

  • Auctions ending soon 🔎

  • People to follow in the hobby 👥

  • Meme of the day 🃏

WHATNOT AND THE ECONOMICS OF REPACKS 📦

NEO Cards & Comics just released a great video on the topic on Whatnot and repacks. Whatnot has become the go-to platforms for hobby participants when it comes to gambling-esque activities like breaking and selling repacks, with Fanatics Live, TikTok Live, and Facebook following closely behind.

NEO broke down the economics of a repack product he saw for sale from one of the larger streamers on Whatnot. Here are the numbers: the repack product had 100 available slots/packs, with each one priced at $3.25k. That means the total revenue for the product was $325k. The average value per spot was approximately $2.8k (based off comps), with a floor of $1.1k and a ceiling of $21k. The ceiling is typically set by a singular “chaser“ card, a high-value card added to stir up buyer interest.

Here’s the math on how much the streamer is actually making from this. They’re bringing in $325k, and the platform selling fees are probably around 10%. Big streamers often have special deals/kickbacks from Whatnot, but let’s use 10% for simplicity’s sake. That leaves them with $292.5k after fees. If they bought their inventory at full comps, it would cost them around $280k ($2.8k x 100), but it’s more likely that they bought around 80-90% of comps. In that case, the inventory cost is around $224k-252k. Subtracting that from $292.5k, we get a net profit on this repack product of $40.5k-68.5k. That’s a pretty penny!

My take: There’s two numerical factors upon which to evaluate a repack: return to buyer (RTB) and volatility. RTB, a term I just coined, tells you for every dollar you spend on a repack product, how much can you expect to get back in card value. In this case, each pack is $3,250 and the average value per pack is $2,800. Dividing the two, we get an RTB of 86% — for every dollar you spend on this repack product, you get back 86 cents in cards. Volatility refers to the distribution of value for the cards included in the repack. Low volatility means that most cards in the repack are valued close to the average value per spot, whereas high volatility would mean they’re more spread out. It’s hard to say in this case since we don’t know all the cards included, but a $1.1k floor and $21k ceiling suggests to me that this is a pretty high volatility repack.

RARE 1/1 JORDAN LOGOMAN HITS THE AUCTION BLOCK 💎

A highly rare and potentially record-setting Michael Jordan card has just come up for sale at Goldin Auctions. The 2003-04 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection autographed Logoman patch card features Jordan in his iconic Chicago Bulls uniform. The card is graded PSA Authentic with a perfect Auto 10 for the signature, and has a game-used patch. The current bids stands at $1.7 million (including buyer’s premium), with the auction ending on June 1.

2003-04 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection Jordan Logoman

According to Goldin, the “whereabouts of this card were unknown for years“, until it surfaced at PSA in 2022. This is the first time the card has been available at public auction. The card is also Jordan’s first Logoman patch auto card in a Bulls uniform — the prior year’s Upper Deck released had Jordan Logoman patch auto cards, but they were all of him in a Wizards uniform.

My take: The hammer price for this card will be a good datapoint for where the ultra-high end card market is at right now. Previous notable results for Jordan collectibles include his “The Last Dance“ game-worn jersey from the 1998 NBA finals that sold for $10 million in September 2022, and a set of game-worn Jordan shoes from all six of his NBA Finals that sold for $8 million in February of this year. Let’s see if this card can beat the $2.4 million sale price for LeBron’s Triple Logoman!

AUCTIONS ENDING SOON 🔎

PEOPLE TO FOLLOW IN THE HOBBY 👥

MEME OF THE DAY 🃏

Source: Thecrazedviper on Reddit